Kit & Capital
HOW IT WORKS

The method, the maths, and what we don't know

We find businesses your budget can start, check what their products sell for, and work out an illustrative payback. Every number shows where it came from. The one number nobody can know, demand where you live, is labelled as the one to test.

01

Where prices come from

Three kinds of input, each checked on a date and linked in the plan's sources list. The figures here are a made-up example, not a real plan.

Machine price

The maker's own store, or a major retailer when the maker doesn't sell direct. Our example machine costs $300.

Sale price

We check listings for the same product, drop any that aren't really the same thing, and take the median of the rest. Say 10 listings for our example keyring run from $8.00 to $40.00; if one is a digital file, the median of the other 9 might be $20.00.

We use the median, not the average, so one odd price can't pull the figure up or down.
Costs

Materials from supplier listings, selling fees from the marketplace's published fee schedule, and shipping from carrier prices. In the example, one keyring costs $3.00 to make, plus $7.00 in fees and shipping an order.

02

The maths, in plain words

Five steps, shown with a made-up $300 machine making a $20 keyring. Change the orders a day to watch each step move.

Orders a day
  1. 1
    Margin a unitSale price, minus unit cost, minus fees and shipping.
    $20.00 − $3.00 − $7.00$10.00a keyring
  2. 2
    Orders a dayThe smallest of three: demand, what the machine can make, and what your time allows. Limited by demand.Machine12 h × 60% ÷ 0.5 h = 14.4Your time2 h ÷ 0.25 h = 8
    smallest of 2, 14.4, 82orders a day
  3. 3
    Profit a selling dayMargin times orders a day, minus rent for the day.
    $10.00 × 2 − $0.00$20.00a selling day
  4. 4
    Pays for itself inMachine price divided by profit a selling day, for the typical machine. Paybacks over 12 months show in months of selling days, at 22 selling days a month: 902 selling days is 41 months of selling days, about 3½ years.
    $300 ÷ $20.0015.0selling days, about 3 weeks
  5. 5
    First-year returnA year of profit (264 selling days), minus the machine price, in dollars and as a share of the machine price. Before paying yourself. On public pages it is rounded: to $10 under $1,000, $100 under $10,000, then $1,000.
    ($20.00 × 264 − $300) ÷ $3001,660%in the first year
Selling days are weekdays, 22 a month. We label payback "Pays for itself in", with a calendar guide at 5 selling days a week: 15 selling days is about 3 weeks. Over 12 months we show months of selling days, with years beside it: 902 selling days is 41 months of selling days, about 3½ years.Profit doesn't include a wage for your time. Plans show profit an hour of your time, so you can judge whether it's worth it.

One business, several machines

  • The typical machine. The free figures use the median price and median time per unit across a business's 3 to 5 machine options. With an even number we average the middle two, to the nearest dollar, and say so: "with a typical $300 machine".
  • "From" prices. "From $250" is the cheapest option. A business shows in your budget results when its cheapest machine fits.
  • When speed pays. If orders are the limit, a faster machine adds nothing, so the cheapest suitable one pays for itself first. Speed only pays above a crossover, such as "the pro pays off once you sell more than 20 a day". Each plan works this out for its machines.
03

How sure we are

Every input carries one of three tags. Tap any assumption chip on the site to see it.

HighRead from a listing, spec sheet or fee schedule we checked. The machine price and the sale price.
MediumA default we chose, with the reason shown. Utilisation of 60%, 2 hours of your time a day.
Low · test firstOur best guess. Always marked with a dashed chip, and always paired with how to test it. Demand is always low.
04

What we don't know

How many people near you will buy. Listing activity gives us a starting guess, but it can't tell us about your town, your prices or your reach. So demand is the input that decides most results, and the one we're least sure of.

Orders a day2our estimate · test this first
Also unknown: your real costs once you startHow prices move after you start sellingHow many hours you'll really spend
05

Why the plan starts with a test

Because demand decides the result, the core of every plan is a week-long test you do before buying anything. It costs nothing but your time.

  1. 01Contact 25 likely buyersFrom a list of who buys it and where to find them.
  2. 02Ask for a price and a depositWith a ready-made script. A deposit is the strongest signal you can get.
  3. 03Count against a stated ruleA set of go or no-go checks. It's your call either way.
  4. 04Put your results inEvery figure in the plan updates to your numbers.
See what's in a plan